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Value Verdict
DCF fair value with margin of safety
Auto:Defaulting to TTM Free Cash Flow — stable cash generation, no need to smooth.
Price is 114.1% above fair value (ratio 2.14× FV). Reaching $100.98 for a 20% margin of safety would require a major repricing.
20% MoS — lower buffer, derived from Wide moat (durable competitive advantage).
Quality before price
Is this a fundamentally healthy business?
Before any valuation, AAPL goes through our 8-pillar health check, a Buffett-style 8-point quality checklist, and a moat classifier — so a fair-looking price on a fragile business never slips through.
Financial health
6/8 pillars passed
5YR P/E Ratio < 22.5
Net Income Growth 5 Yr
5YR ROIC > 9%
Revenue Growth 5 Yr
Shares Outstanding
LTL / 5 Yr FCF < 5
Cash Flow Growth 5 Yr
5 YR Price to FCF < 22.5
Competitive Advantage
Signals that the company may have a durable advantage
- Brand / Intangibles●○○
- — Gross margin above sector premium
- — Gross margin stable over 10 years
- Cost Advantage●●●
- — ROIC consistently above 15%
- Network Effect●●●
- — ROIC above 25% — usually platform economics
- Scale●●●
- — Strong and consistent free cash flow margin
- Pricing Power●●●
- — Gross margin expanding over time — pricing power
Automatic heuristics — always verify with the 10-K.
Buffett Checklist
Qualitative checks a long-term investor would run
- Predictable earnings
EPS volatility 81% — lower is better. Buffett prefers companies whose profits don't swing wildly year to year.
- Buys back shares
Share count changed by -9.0% over 5 years. Falling share count means each existing share owns more of the business.
- Manageable debt
Long-term debt equals 0.0 years of free cash flow. Below 4 is comfortable.
- High return on capital
Average ROIC 72.7%. Above 15% is Buffett-grade — the company turns capital into profit efficiently.
- Consistent free cash flow
5/5 years of positive FCF. Unbroken positive FCF is one of Buffett's strongest filters.
- Stable margins
Gross margin ~41% and stable — usually means pricing power.
- Pays dividends
Informational — great compounders often reinvest instead of paying dividends.
Moat premium
Quality isn't decorative — it compounds.
A wide-moat business deserves a higher terminal multiple and a lower discount rate. We quantify the exact shift, so you see both the base fair value and the moat-adjusted fair value, with the parameter deltas that separate them.
Fair Value with Competitive Advantage
Base DCF refined by the company's detected competitive advantage.
Same DCF with terminal multiple and discount rate adjusted for detected competitive advantage.
Moat Valuation Impact
How the moat rating shifts the DCF — concrete parameters, not a vibe.
Wide-moat firms (durable pricing power, scale, network effects) still dominate their markets in 10 years. That supports a richer terminal multiple (+5) and a lower discount rate (−1pp), because the 10-year projection carries less execution risk. Pat Dorsey / Morningstar framework.
Four methods, one range
Not a single number. A triangulated range.
Discounted cash flow, Graham formula, P/E × normalized EPS, and EV/EBITDA — four independent lenses converge on a fair-value range. If three methods agree and one disagrees, you know where the uncertainty sits.
Valuation Range
Five independent methods triangulate a fair value band — no single number decides.
4 methods disagree widely: $26.47 – $126.22 (median $106.06). The model relies on assumptions that differ materially across methods.
Current price $270.23 sits 154.8% above the median — above the fair-value range.
Rule #1 investing
Sticker price, 10-Cap, and payback time.
On top of DCF, every quality stock gets the Phil Town toolkit: a sticker price with a built-in margin of safety, Buffett's 10-Cap owner-earnings yield, the years to earn your money back, and a predictability score — so you know not just what it's worth, but when it's a buy.
MoS buy price
Sticker price discounted by a margin of safety — the price below which the odds tilt in your favor.
Buffett 10-Cap
Owner-earnings yield inverted to a 10× cap rate — what a private buyer would pay for the whole business.
Payback time
How many years of free cash flow it takes to earn back today's price, growth included.
Predictability ★
A 5-star read on how stable earnings, cash flow and growth have been — the foundation of any forecast.
Reverse DCF
What growth does the market already price in?
Instead of guessing a growth rate, we solve for the rate implied by today's price for AAPL — then compare it to the company's historical CAGR. If the market demands 15% growth from a 3% grower, you're buying optimism.
Market Expectations
What growth is the price implying?
To justify the current price, the market implies FCF will grow at 18.1% annually for 10 years.
5.51× historical growth
Market prices in growth significantly beyond historical trend. Elevated downside risk if growth disappoints.
Your assumptions
Don't trust our number? Run your own.
Every fair value is just a model — so we let you drive it. Override the growth rate, discount rate and terminal multiple and watch the intrinsic value recalculate instantly, with a projection chart of the cash flows behind it.
- Editable growth, discount rate and terminal multiple
- Live recalculation as you move each input
- Visual projection chart of the modeled cash flows
- Your assumptions are saved per stock
AAPL — base case
Raw data
10 years of filings, one click away
Income statement, balance sheet and cash flow for AAPL — with searchable tooltips and hover-sparklines that visualize the 10-year trend of any line item.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $416.16B | $391.04B | $383.29B | $394.33B | $365.82B | $274.52B | $260.17B | $265.60B | $229.23B | $215.64B | $233.72B | $182.80B | $170.91B | N/A | $108.25B | N/A | $42.91B | $37.49B | $24.58B | N/A | |
| $220.96B | $210.35B | $214.14B | $223.55B | $212.98B | $169.56B | $161.78B | $163.76B | $141.05B | $131.38B | $140.09B | $112.26B | $106.61B | N/A | $64.43B | N/A | $25.68B | $24.29B | $16.43B | N/A | |
| $195.20B | $180.68B | $169.15B | $170.78B | $152.84B | $104.96B | $98.39B | $101.84B | $88.19B | $84.26B | $93.63B | $70.54B | $64.30B | N/A | $43.82B | N/A | $17.22B | $13.20B | $8.15B | N/A | |
| $27.60B | $26.10B | $24.93B | $25.09B | $21.97B | $19.92B | $18.25B | $16.71B | $15.26B | $14.19B | $14.33B | $11.99B | $10.83B | N/A | $7.60B | N/A | $4.15B | $3.76B | $2.96B | N/A | |
| $34.55B | $31.37B | $29.92B | $26.25B | $21.91B | $18.75B | $16.22B | $14.24B | $11.58B | $10.05B | $8.07B | $6.04B | $4.48B | N/A | $2.43B | N/A | $1.33B | $1.11B | $782.00M | N/A | |
Operating Interest Expense | $321.00M | N/A | $3.93B | $2.93B | $2.65B | $2.87B | $3.58B | $3.24B | $2.32B | $1.46B | $733.00M | $384.00M | $136.00M | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| $62.15B | $57.47B | $54.85B | $51.35B | $43.89B | $38.67B | $34.46B | $30.94B | $26.84B | $24.24B | $22.40B | $18.03B | $15.31B | N/A | $10.03B | N/A | $5.48B | $4.87B | $3.75B | N/A | |
| $133.05B | $123.22B | $114.30B | $119.44B | $108.95B | $66.29B | $63.93B | $70.90B | $61.34B | $60.02B | $71.23B | $52.50B | $49.00B | N/A | $33.79B | N/A | $11.74B | $8.33B | $4.41B | N/A | |
Non-Operating Interest Expense | $321.00M | N/A | $3.93B | $2.93B | $2.65B | $2.87B | $3.58B | $3.24B | $2.32B | $1.46B | $733.00M | $384.00M | $136.00M | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Net Non-Op. Interest Income/Expense | -$321.00M | $269.00M | -$183.00M | -$106.00M | $198.00M | $890.00M | $1.39B | $2.45B | $2.88B | $2.54B | $2.19B | $1.41B | $1.48B | N/A | $519.00M | N/A | $326.00M | $620.00M | $599.00M | N/A |
Other Income & Expenses | -$321.00M | $269.00M | -$565.00M | -$334.00M | $258.00M | $803.00M | $1.81B | $2.01B | $2.75B | $1.35B | $1.29B | $980.00M | $1.16B | N/A | $415.00M | N/A | $326.00M | $620.00M | $599.00M | N/A |
Net Interest Income | -$321.00M | $269.00M | -$183.00M | -$106.00M | $198.00M | $890.00M | $1.39B | $2.45B | $2.88B | $2.54B | $2.19B | $1.41B | $1.48B | N/A | $519.00M | N/A | $326.00M | $620.00M | $599.00M | N/A |
Pre-Tax Income (EBT) | $132.73B | $123.49B | $113.74B | $119.10B | $109.21B | $67.09B | $65.74B | $72.90B | $64.09B | $61.37B | $72.52B | $53.48B | $50.16B | N/A | $34.21B | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Provision for Income Taxes | $20.72B | $29.75B | $16.74B | $19.30B | $14.53B | $9.68B | $10.48B | $13.37B | $15.74B | $15.69B | $19.12B | $13.97B | $13.12B | N/A | $8.28B | N/A | $3.83B | $2.83B | $1.51B | N/A |
Income from Continuing Operations | $112.01B | $93.74B | $97.00B | $99.80B | $94.68B | $57.41B | $55.26B | $59.53B | $48.35B | $45.69B | $53.39B | $39.51B | $37.04B | N/A | $25.92B | N/A | -$3.83B | -$2.83B | -$1.51B | N/A |
| $112.01B | $93.74B | $97.00B | $99.80B | $94.68B | $57.41B | $55.26B | $59.53B | $48.35B | $45.69B | $53.39B | $39.51B | $37.04B | N/A | $25.92B | N/A | $8.24B | $6.12B | $3.50B | N/A | |
| $144.75B | $134.66B | $125.82B | $130.54B | $120.23B | $77.34B | $76.48B | $81.80B | $71.50B | $70.53B | $80.43B | $52.50B | $49.00B | N/A | $33.79B | N/A | $11.74B | $8.33B | $4.41B | N/A | |
Depreciation & Amortization | $11.70B | $11.45B | $11.52B | $11.10B | $11.28B | $11.06B | $12.55B | $10.90B | $10.16B | $10.51B | $9.20B | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
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Filter the entire universe by every metric we compute on a report — verdict, margin of safety, quality band, moat, ROIC, growth, dividends and 30+ more — or start from a preset that already encodes a strategy.
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Companies that clear every quality gate and trade below fair value.
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Wide-moat, high-ROIC businesses on sale relative to intrinsic value.
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Sustainable payouts backed by free cash flow, not debt.
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Each report bundles the context you need to actually make the call — quarter by quarter, the business itself, and a place to keep what you're watching.
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Frequently asked questions
Everything you need to know about Finrys, DCF, and value investing.
What is Finrys?
Finrys is a value investing research platform offering fair value estimates, DCF and reverse DCF valuations, Buffett-style quality checks, and moat analysis for over 6,000 publicly traded stocks.
How does Finrys calculate fair value?
Finrys uses a probability-weighted Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model across three scenarios — bearish, base, and bullish — combined with reverse DCF, quality gates, and moat analysis to produce a triangulated fair value estimate for each stock.
What is a DCF valuation?
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) is a valuation method that estimates a company's intrinsic value by projecting its future free cash flows and discounting them to present value. It is the cornerstone technique used by value investors like Warren Buffett.
What is reverse DCF?
Reverse DCF starts from today's stock price and calculates what growth rate the market is implicitly expecting. It helps spot stocks where market expectations are unrealistically high, overpriced, or overly pessimistic.
Can I use Finrys for free?
Yes. Finrys offers public access to 5 S&P 500 stock reports (AAPL, MSFT, BRK-B, JPM, LLY) without any account. A free Starter account unlocks 20 top S&P 500 companies with full valuation and moat analysis.
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