UnitedHealth (UNH) Stock Analysis
Financial ServicesHospital & Medical Service Plans
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fair value with margin of safety
Auto:Defaulting to Earnings Power — for banks the market-derived P/E already prices ROE differences, so it triangulates better than book value alone.
Price is 94.0% above fair value (ratio 1.94× FV). Reaching $129.84 for a 40% margin of safety would require a major repricing.
40% MoS — higher buffer, no moat detected (Graham's rule for unknown quality).
Mixed fundamentals (5/8 pillars passed) — the fair-value estimate is less reliable. Consider a larger margin of safety.
8-pillar fundamentals screen
Mixed — do your homeworkSignals that the company may have a durable advantage
Sector: Financials
Automatic heuristics — always verify with the 10-K.
How the moat rating shifts the DCF — concrete parameters, not a vibe.
Without a visible moat, 10-year earnings are less defensible. We compress the terminal multiple (−3) and raise the discount rate (+1pp) to reflect real execution risk. The goal is not pessimism — it's honesty about what we can and can't forecast.
Qualitative checks a long-term investor would run
EPS volatility 73% — lower is better. Buffett prefers companies whose profits don't swing wildly year to year.
Share count changed by -3.7% over 5 years. Falling share count means each existing share owns more of the business.
Long-term debt equals 3.4 years of free cash flow. Below 4 is comfortable.
Average ROIC 14.9%. Above 15% is Buffett-grade — the company turns capital into profit efficiently.
Rule #1: 15 % over 10 years.
How consistent are revenue, EPS, equity, FCF and ROIC?
What growth is the price implying?
To justify the current price, the market implies will grow at 5.4% annually for 10 years.
0.63× historical (36.7% below)
Market pricing aligns with historical performance. The current price does not demand extraordinary growth.
Five independent methods triangulate a fair value band — no single number decides.
4 methods disagree: $181.67 – $289.32 (median $219.60). Treat the median as a best estimate, not a promise.
Current price $419.89 sits 91.2% above the median — above the fair-value range.
Stock FAQ
Common questions about UNH valuation, fair value, and analysis methodology.
Finrys estimates UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC's (UNH) fair value using a probability-weighted Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model across three scenarios — bearish, base, and bullish — combined with a moat adjustment and Buffett-style quality gate. The current estimate is shown above on this page and updates automatically when new financial data is reported.
The verdict at the top of this page compares UNH's current market price to Finrys' moat-adjusted fair value. If price exceeds fair value, the stock is flagged as potentially overvalued; if price is below fair value with a sufficient margin of safety, it is flagged as undervalued. The valuation range chart shows the spread across DCF, reverse DCF, and multiples-based estimates.
5/5 years of positive FCF. Unbroken positive FCF is one of Buffett's strongest filters.
Gross margin ~89% and stable — usually means pricing power.
Informational — great compounders often reinvest instead of paying dividends.
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC's DCF is calculated by projecting future free cash flows over 10 years and discounting them to present value at a 10% discount rate. Finrys uses three growth-rate scenarios (worst, base, best) probability-weighted into one fair value, then applies a moat-based premium or discount based on competitive advantage signals.
The valuation range chart triangulates UNH's fair value against sector multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA) so you can see where it sits versus comparable companies. The Buffett checklist additionally scores UNH on 10 quality criteria — return on capital, debt levels, margin stability — that value investors use to compare durability across peers.
Compare against other S&P 500 stocks with full DCF and moat analysis.
