ExxonMobil (XOM) Stock Analysis
EnergyPetroleum Refining
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fair value with margin of safety
Auto:Defaulting to 5-year average FCF — cyclical sector, single-year peaks or troughs would distort the fair value.
Price is 132.0% above fair value (ratio 2.32× FV). Reaching $47.62 for a 40% margin of safety would require a major repricing.
40% MoS — higher buffer, no moat detected (Graham's rule for unknown quality).
Mixed fundamentals (4/8 pillars passed) — the fair-value estimate is less reliable. Consider a larger margin of safety.
8-pillar fundamentals screen
Mixed — do your homeworkSignals that the company may have a durable advantage
Sector: Energy
Automatic heuristics — always verify with the 10-K.
How the moat rating shifts the DCF — concrete parameters, not a vibe.
Without a visible moat, 10-year earnings are less defensible. We compress the terminal multiple (−3) and raise the discount rate (+1pp) to reflect real execution risk. The goal is not pessimism — it's honesty about what we can and can't forecast.
Qualitative checks a long-term investor would run
EPS volatility 80% — lower is better. Buffett prefers companies whose profits don't swing wildly year to year.
Share count changed by -1.4% over 5 years. Falling share count means each existing share owns more of the business.
Long-term debt equals 0.0 years of free cash flow. Below 4 is comfortable.
Average ROIC 0.0%. Above 15% is Buffett-grade — the company turns capital into profit efficiently.
Rule #1: 15 % over 10 years.
How consistent are revenue, EPS, equity, FCF and ROIC?
What growth is the price implying?
To justify the current price, the market implies will grow at 11.4% annually for 10 years.
Insufficient historical data for comparison — showing implied growth only.
Market expects acceleration vs history. This requires a clear catalyst — new products, pricing power, geographic expansion, margin improvement.
Five independent methods triangulate a fair value band — no single number decides.
5 methods disagree widely: $29.91 – $100.96 (median $79.37). The model relies on assumptions that differ materially across methods.
Current price $184.13 sits 132.0% above the median — above the fair-value range.
Stock FAQ
Common questions about XOM valuation, fair value, and analysis methodology.
Finrys estimates ExxonMobil Holdings Corp's (XOM) fair value using a probability-weighted Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model across three scenarios — bearish, base, and bullish — combined with a moat adjustment and Buffett-style quality gate. The current estimate is shown above on this page and updates automatically when new financial data is reported.
The verdict at the top of this page compares XOM's current market price to Finrys' moat-adjusted fair value. If price exceeds fair value, the stock is flagged as potentially overvalued; if price is below fair value with a sufficient margin of safety, it is flagged as undervalued. The valuation range chart shows the spread across DCF, reverse DCF, and multiples-based estimates.
5/5 years of positive FCF. Unbroken positive FCF is one of Buffett's strongest filters.
Informational — great compounders often reinvest instead of paying dividends.
ExxonMobil Holdings Corp's DCF is calculated by projecting future free cash flows over 10 years and discounting them to present value at a 10% discount rate. Finrys uses three growth-rate scenarios (worst, base, best) probability-weighted into one fair value, then applies a moat-based premium or discount based on competitive advantage signals.
The valuation range chart triangulates XOM's fair value against sector multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA) so you can see where it sits versus comparable companies. The Buffett checklist additionally scores XOM on 10 quality criteria — return on capital, debt levels, margin stability — that value investors use to compare durability across peers.
Compare against other S&P 500 stocks with full DCF and moat analysis.
