Costco Wholesale (COST) Stock Analysis
Consumer CyclicalRetail-Variety Stores
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fair value with margin of safety
Auto:Defaulting to TTM Free Cash Flow — heavy growth-capex companies are best valued on what they actually generate today, not on what management plans to reinvest.
Price is 129.8% above fair value (ratio 2.30× FV). Reaching $308.07 for a 30% margin of safety would require a major repricing.
30% MoS — standard buffer, derived from Narrow moat.
Mixed fundamentals (5/8 pillars passed) — the fair-value estimate is less reliable. Consider a larger margin of safety.
8-pillar fundamentals screen
Mixed — do your homeworkSignals that the company may have a durable advantage
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Automatic heuristics — always verify with the 10-K.
How the moat rating shifts the DCF — concrete parameters, not a vibe.
Narrow-moat firms (partial pricing power or cost advantage, but not unassailable) get a modest terminal multiple bump (+2). The discount rate stays untouched — we reward durability without pretending the future is certain.
Qualitative checks a long-term investor would run
EPS volatility 104% — lower is better. Buffett prefers companies whose profits don't swing wildly year to year.
Share count changed by 0.1% over 5 years. Falling share count means each existing share owns more of the business.
Long-term debt equals 0.6 years of free cash flow. Below 4 is comfortable.
Average ROIC 20.4%. Above 15% is Buffett-grade — the company turns capital into profit efficiently.
Rule #1: 15 % over 10 years.
How consistent are revenue, EPS, equity, FCF and ROIC?
What growth is the price implying?
To justify the current price, the market implies will grow at 20.1% annually for 10 years.
2.68× historical growth
Market prices in growth significantly beyond historical trend. Elevated downside risk if growth disappoints.
Five independent methods triangulate a fair value band — no single number decides.
5 methods disagree widely: $194.34 – $440.10 (median $298.68). The model relies on assumptions that differ materially across methods.
Current price $1.01K sits 238.5% above the median — above the fair-value range.
Fair value ranges from $440.10 (extra growth spend treated as a cost) to $635.80 (treated as productive investment) — a 1.4× gap. The reinvestment assumption is a meaningful part of the thesis.
Value-investing rule: anchor on the lower figure and treat the gap as the risk you take on the reinvestment actually paying off.
Stock FAQ
Common questions about COST valuation, fair value, and analysis methodology.
Finrys estimates COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW's (COST) fair value using a probability-weighted Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model across three scenarios — bearish, base, and bullish — combined with a moat adjustment and Buffett-style quality gate. The current estimate is shown above on this page and updates automatically when new financial data is reported.
The verdict at the top of this page compares COST's current market price to Finrys' moat-adjusted fair value. If price exceeds fair value, the stock is flagged as potentially overvalued; if price is below fair value with a sufficient margin of safety, it is flagged as undervalued. The valuation range chart shows the spread across DCF, reverse DCF, and multiples-based estimates.
5/5 years of positive FCF. Unbroken positive FCF is one of Buffett's strongest filters.
Gross margin ~28% and stable — usually means pricing power.
Informational — great compounders often reinvest instead of paying dividends.
COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW's DCF is calculated by projecting future free cash flows over 10 years and discounting them to present value at a 10% discount rate. Finrys uses three growth-rate scenarios (worst, base, best) probability-weighted into one fair value, then applies a moat-based premium or discount based on competitive advantage signals.
The valuation range chart triangulates COST's fair value against sector multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA) so you can see where it sits versus comparable companies. The Buffett checklist additionally scores COST on 10 quality criteria — return on capital, debt levels, margin stability — that value investors use to compare durability across peers.
Compare against other S&P 500 stocks with full DCF and moat analysis.
