JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Stock Analysis
Financial ServicesNational Commercial Banks
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fair value with margin of safety
Auto:Defaulting to Residual Income — a bank's cash flow is dominated by deposit swings, and a fixed sector P/E prices a 6% ROE the same as a 22% one. Value = book plus what the bank earns above its cost of equity.
Price is 48.6% above fair value. Below $133.85, the price would offer a 40% margin of safety.
40% MoS — higher buffer, no moat detected (Graham's rule for unknown quality).
8-pillar fundamentals screen
Strong fundamentalsHow the moat rating shifts the DCF — concrete parameters, not a vibe.
Without a visible moat, 10-year earnings are less defensible. We compress the terminal multiple (−3) and raise the discount rate (+1pp) to reflect real execution risk. The goal is not pessimism — it's honesty about what we can and can't forecast.
Rule #1: 15 % over 10 years.
How consistent are revenue, EPS, equity, FCF and ROIC?
What growth is the price implying?
Free cash flow is unavailable or non-positive — reverse cannot be computed for this company.
Five independent methods triangulate a fair value band — no single number decides.
3 methods converge on $207.49 – $249.29 (median $223.08). High confidence range.
Current price $331.58 sits 48.6% above the median — above the fair-value range.
Signals that the company may have a durable advantage
Sector: Financials
Automatic heuristics — always verify with the 10-K.
Qualitative checks a long-term investor would run
EPS volatility 59% — lower is better. Buffett prefers companies whose profits don't swing wildly year to year.
Share count changed by -8.4% over 5 years. Falling share count means each existing share owns more of the business.
Long-term debt equals 0.0 years of free cash flow. Below 4 is comfortable.
Average ROIC 0.0%. Above 15% is Buffett-grade — the company turns capital into profit efficiently.
3/5 years of positive FCF. Unbroken positive FCF is one of Buffett's strongest filters.
Informational — great compounders often reinvest instead of paying dividends.
Stock FAQ
Common questions about JPM valuation, fair value, and analysis methodology.
Finrys estimates JPMORGAN CHASE & CO's (JPM) fair value using a probability-weighted Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model across three scenarios — bearish, base, and bullish — combined with a moat adjustment and Buffett-style quality gate. The current estimate is shown above on this page and updates automatically when new financial data is reported.
The verdict at the top of this page compares JPM's current market price to Finrys' moat-adjusted fair value. If price exceeds fair value, the stock is flagged as potentially overvalued; if price is below fair value with a sufficient margin of safety, it is flagged as undervalued. The valuation range chart shows the spread across DCF, reverse DCF, and multiples-based estimates.
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO's DCF is calculated by projecting future free cash flows over 10 years and discounting them to present value at a 10% discount rate. Finrys uses three growth-rate scenarios (worst, base, best) probability-weighted into one fair value, then applies a moat-based premium or discount based on competitive advantage signals.
The valuation range chart triangulates JPM's fair value against sector multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA) so you can see where it sits versus comparable companies. The Buffett checklist additionally scores JPM on 10 quality criteria — return on capital, debt levels, margin stability — that value investors use to compare durability across peers.
Compare against other S&P 500 stocks with full DCF and moat analysis.
